The Iowa caucuses are just days away now. I’ll go out on a limb and make some predictions. These are not endorsements, just observations.
I predict a record turnout. 65% of the vote will go to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz combined. Ben Carson comes in third if his supporters don’t throw in the towel and not show up.
Let me address the Ben Carson supporters with a message that applies to everyone. Pundits are saying that Carson is fading. The danger for Carson is that his supporters decide to believe the pundits and give up. If you believe in Ben Carson and you are in Iowa, then don’t let some pundit (who will never support Carson anyway) convince you that you are wasting your time.
The only thing that counts is your vote in the caucus meeting. Posts on Facebook and sitting around the coffee table complaining about the state of our nation is worthless if you don’t vote.
That message applies to everyone especially in the general election in November. I mentioned this about Ben Carson because I believe that he has a larger grassroots organization than people realize. The question is whether or not they will show up.
When it comes to showing up, supporters for Donald Trump and Ted Cruz will show up. They will show up in droves.
Ted Cruz has the best grassroots organization in the nation. Those who decide on Cruz are not going to change their minds. They will crawl over broken glass to go vote for Ted Cruz.
The typical establishment type Republican has labeled Donald Trump as clown, a disgrace, an embarrassment, and all but certain to fizzle out. He was supposed to crash and burn by July, no make that August, no make that after Labor Day, no make that after Christmas.
Much to their chagrin, Donald Trump has not fizzled out. What amazes me is that these pundits all seem to just talk to one another. Iowa will prove that he is for real.
There has been a boiling activity, like a Mount St. Helens ready to erupt. These are voters who may have never attended a caucus but they consider themselves to be conservative. They will show up to vote and it will be Donald Trump or Ted Cruz who gets their votes.
In 2010, voters flocked to the polls to fire Nancy Pelosi and they repudiated the Democrat party. In 2014, voters again flocked to the polls to fire Harry Reid and they repudiated the Democrat party.
In the Republican primaries in 2016 voters will again flock to the polls except this time it won’t be to fire any Democrats. This time it will be average citizens who are furious at the Republican party leadership.
The voters, starting in Iowa, are going to repudiate the Republican party. I hope that the Republican Party will finally hear and heed what the average person outside of Washington has been shouting for years.
While Cruz has a strong organization, Trump supporters will be like the villagers storming the castle. My gut feeling is that Trump will take Iowa with 32 – 38% and Cruz will be at a close second with 30 – 35%.
That’s my prediction. I’m interested to hear your predictions.
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