Predictions and Analysis for Tuesday

The following e-mail message was sent to Todd Rehm of the Georgia Pundit on Sunday afternoon, December 2014 with predictions and analysis.

Todd,

It is Sunday afternoon and I thought that I would give you my best guess on what will happen on Tuesday. I’m not sending my thoughts to anyone else. You are holding this in escrow. Run it if you want after Tuesday.

No runoff – David Perdue and Nathan Deal will win outright on Tuesday. David Perdue and Governor Deal will win with 51 to 54% of the vote. Governor Deal will do a little better than David Perdue because he did not endure such a grueling primary. Georgia voters do not want a runoff.

The Libertarian vote in 2008 that led to a runoff in Saxby’s race was a protest vote toward the Republican Party. Those who cast a protest vote in 2008 are more pragmatic this time around. They are weary of the campaign ads and do not relish the thought of Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years polluted with the mud that they have endured for the past several months. They also realize that a vote for the Libertarian candidate is more likely to be a vote for the Democrat. Pragmatism will carry the day in 2014. Republicans will need to earn these votes in the future.

The postmortem of this campaign will result in a few surprises. One of which will be that Republicans did better with black voters than anticipated.

Obama and the Democrat party is not nearly the darling of black Georgians that they may think that they are. The unbridled push for abortion and gay rights runs contrary to some deeply held conservative views that are shared across racial lines.

The Democrat party stored up a mammoth sized vault of political capital and loyalty with black Georgians over the years. As black Georgians look back over half a century of policies that have hurt far more than helped the average black family, more and more are asking why they should continue to invest in a party that promotes these losing policies. It will not be an overwhelming shift, but it will be a shift that should raise eyebrows.

Republicans have an opportunity to bring some of those votes to their side – but they won’t do it by playing to the racial aspect. They have an opportunity to win over the votes by boldly standing for conservative values. Martin Luther King’s dream of looking not at the color of skin but at the content of character is where Republicans need to stand.

David Perdue will do much better with women than the pundits have predicted. The so-called women’s issues that Democrats push are not as much women’s issues as they are liberal philosophy. The values that David Perdue’s candidacy promoted are values that are shared by Georgians across racial and gender lines. Few women voted for Michelle Nunn simply because of her gender.

Two events in the last weeks of the campaign solidified the Republican victory. One was the racially charged flyer sent out by the Georgia Democrat Party. This has been a common practice in every major election by the Georgia Democrats. The average Georgian did not hear much about it because the flyers landed in mailboxes on the Saturday before election day. Insider political followers took notice but with basically a one day news cycle, it was not major news.

This year was different because the big push for Sunday voting came over a week before the election day. Democrats had to show a huge turnout for early voting or they knew that all was lost. So the flyers hit the mail boxes but this time the news cycle ran for over a week and the average Georgian saw the despicable actions of the Democrat party for what they were. The only Democrat candidate that I heard vocally condemning the practice was John Barrow who was fighting for his life. I predict that he will also lose this time around in large part because of the Democrat flyer.

The other event was Barack Obama confirming that his policies were on the ballot with his “make no mistake about it.” He piled on with calling the Atlanta radio station endorsing Michelle Nunn specifically. As one who was closely monitoring early voting and organizing to get the vote out for David Perdue and Republican candidates, it suddenly became easier to get voters to the polls after that call.

Those are some of my predictions. Hold on to these and do with them as you please on November 5. It will be interesting to see how close my non-scientific guesstimates turn out.

Note: Todd Published this on November 5.  Click Here to Read in Georgia Pundit. 

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