The long-anticipated first Republican Presidential Debates are tonight. I have a few thoughts about both events.
There will be an earlier debate forum for the candidates who did not make the top ten list. Every candidate, no doubt, wanted to be at the main event.
For those who did not reach that threshold, the earlier event offers a unique opportunity to make lemonade out of lemons. There will be fewer of them on stage and there won’t be the drama of waiting to watch a crash.
The main event will have Donald Trump front and center. He has been the center of attention in the media. The media pundits and analysts still do not give him credit as a “real” candidate.
Listen to any discussion when Trump is mentioned and it always contains some statement to the effect that, “of course, he will never be the nominee.” That strikes me as analytical arrogance.
I recall hearing many jokes about “Bedtime for Bonzo” when a certain movie actor decided to run for Governor of California. Donald Trump could be President and he does not need the permission or approval of the pundits and analysts.
When Trump made his comments about John McCain a few weeks ago, every analyst I heard said that his campaign was over. They were wrong.
My interest in Trump is a little different. I’m not looking for any big fireworks. I am interested to see if Trump can really answer a question in less than one minute.
If he does, then maybe analysts will take him seriously. It doesn’t really matter if they take him seriously or not, obviously, a lot of Americans take him seriously.
John Kasich of Ohio used the line “we proved them wrong again” repeatedly in his announcement speech. The fact that he made it to the debates is a sign that he proved them wrong again within the first couple of weeks of his campaign.
Many people know about Ted Cruz from the negative stories they have heard in the media. They will not see the caricature that they hear of from mainstream media. They will see a very articulate, very positive, powerful communicator.
Ben Carson has been quietly and calmly getting his message out. I think that his demeanor and his calm manner of speech with powerful impact will draw attention.
Mike Huckabee also comes across with a sense of calm. He will connect with the audience in the room as well as the audience watching and listening.
Jeb Bush is the one who is probably in the most precarious position. He has the backing of many who are referred to as the “establishment.” His challenge is that the others on the stage with him are not considered, “establishment” candidates. This year there are more strong non-establishment candidates than there have been in the past.
Any candidate who gets the nomination will have to woo supporters from others. When the field is narrowed, Jeb is likely not the 2nd in line for supporters of most of the other candidates.
That brings me to Walker. If Jeb has any misstep, then Walker could be the next in line for those who turn cool on Jeb Bush. Unlike Bush; however, Walker could be 2nd in line for supporters of many other candidates in the race.
I’m not going to try to talk about all of the candidates. These are just the ones that come to my mind as I watch tonight.
I’m looking forward to watching tonight to see what happens.by