Predictions for Iowa

The Iowa caucuses are just days away now. I’ll go out on a limb and make some predictions. These are not endorsements, just observations.

I predict a record turnout. 65% of the vote will go to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz combined. Ben Carson comes in third if his supporters don’t throw in the towel and not show up.

Let me address the Ben Carson supporters with a message that applies to everyone.

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Carly Fiorina Demonstrates How to Take Charge of the Message

Listen to any of the mainstream media coverage of the call to defund Planned Parenthood and you will hear them refer to the Republicans shutting down the government. I expect that spin from them.

What is infuriating is that so many Republicans inside the DC beltway swallow that message hook, line, and sinker. They point back to effort to defund Obamacare and say that it failed. That line of thinking is just an excuse for inaction. Planned Parenthood is not Obamacare.

Carly Fiorina got a lot of attention at last Wednesday’s debate with her resolute and passionate call to defund Planned Parenthood. Then on Friday at the Heritage Action Take Back America Presidential Candidate Forum, it took 25 seconds for her to show how we should put the ball squarely in the President’s court.

https://youtu.be/B_H8ohcVGyo
On Friday, the US House of Representatives passed HR 3134 to place a moratorium for one year on funding Planned Parenthood.

(Note to Georgia 2nd District – Sanford Bishop Voted “NO.” )

Section 3a reads as follows:

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Pretentious Predictions of Pompous Pundits

I have been watching the pundits, primarily on Fox News, and continue to be amazed at their predictions that basically write off the top three candidates, Trump, Carson, and Cruz. They act as if they are the HR Department who will hand the voters their list of acceptable candidates.

At worst it is arrogance. At best it is elitism. I call it simply pompous punditry.

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Immigration Plan of Donald Trump and Grassroots – No Political Correctness

In my last Note from Don Cole, I made this observation: “Even though Trump is high in the polls there is one thing that I have not seen. I see no ground game.” That box is now checked in Iowa.

I saw more than one report during the week about the activities at the Iowa State Fair that specifically addressed Trump’s ground game in Iowa. Trump hired Chuck Laudner to manage his Iowa effort. Laudner was the head of Rick Santorum’s team that won the Iowa Caucuses in 2012.

A Washington Post article quoted an organizer for Rick Perry who made this observation, “You cannot swing a dead cat in Iowa and not hit a Trump person . . . . . The Trump people are everywhere with literature and T-shirts and signing people up.”

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Donald Trump – He is Writing His Own Political Playbook – Ted Cruz Has the Ground Game

Donald Trump stayed front and center in the news cycle for the weekend. It sometimes appears that his political strategy is to make outrageous statements to guarantee that he stays in the center of attention.

When he is in the crosshairs of his attackers, they are still focusing on him and not looking at anyone else. Meanwhile, he continues to rise in the polls. It may be too early to determine the impact of his comments about Megyn Kelly but initial results look like his numbers stay high.

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Thoughts on Debate Tonight

The long-anticipated first Republican Presidential Debates are tonight. I have a few thoughts about both events.

There will be an earlier debate forum for the candidates who did not make the top ten list. Every candidate, no doubt, wanted to be at the main event.

For those who did not reach that threshold, the earlier event offers a unique opportunity to make lemonade out of lemons. There will be fewer of them on stage and there won’t be the drama of waiting to watch a crash.

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Review of John Kasich Presidential Candidacy Announcement

Ohio Governor John Kasich announced his candidacy on July 21, 2005 at his alma mater of Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio. His speech lasted a little more than 40 minutes.

After introducing his twin daughters and his wife on the stage with him, he turned to the American dream. He talked about drawing inspiration from the past in order to carry it forward to the next generation.

“…we can all work to make sure the next generation is going to be in a position of greater strength than what we received. And I get my inspiration from the people who came before me. And I want to tell you about a few of the ones that inspire me.”

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Donald Trump Has a Bigger Problem Than the Republican Party

Last weekend the buzz was about Donald Trump’s comments on John McCain.  Now this weekend it will be about his threat to go 3rd party.  I think that there is some purposeful exaggeration and out of context reporting and analysis.

I have not decided on which candidate that I will support so this is not an endorsement of Trump.  I might choose to support him so I’m not bashing him here either.

I wanted to see what all the fuss was about with the John McCain comments, so I watched the video of the 30 minute conversation with Frank Luntz .  I don’t think that Trump is getting a fair deal on the McCain comments.  I have not listened to the specifics on the 3rd party discussion.  I have a feeling that also is being inflated.

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